Some in the payments industry saw this one coming, but nobody expected it to be this big.

Card-present merchants are experiencing up to a 50% increase in chargebacks since the EMV liability shift took place last October.  Under the new policy, merchants who don’t process a chip on an enabled card during a card-present transaction accept unilateral liability in the event of a cardholder dispute.

The theory is that some cardholders and issuers are using the liability shift to their own advantage.  In cases where a chip-enabled card was swiped instead of dipped at the point of sale, cardholders can simply dispute a transaction and the issuer can immediately charge it back with no merchant recourse.

Likewise, issuers could charge back uncollectible transactions, thereby avoiding a chargeoff expense to the issuer by shifting the cost to the merchant.

Of course, it’s just a theory…